The Braves Have a Shot

This spring was miserable. Mid-February pitchers and catchers arrived at camp. The WBC was played and left the Braves without Chipper, B-Mac, Vasquez, and others. Ken Griffey said he liked Atlanta...then went to Seattle. We got Garret Anderson instead (younger, higher career avg). Glavine's fastball topped out at 80mph while a guy named Hanson topped out a 99 mph (he was sent to AAA Gwinett). Two 19 year olds carried the Braves while the vets were playing for their WBC teams (they're in A ball as well). A 22 year old named Schafer essentially locked up the center field job with a .350 avg and 5 stolen bases. This spring training has felt like a season in itself. On the immediate horizon, however, is the first meaningful game of 2009 against the Phillies.

I like this Braves team - a lot. Sure, I am biased, but I operate on facts.

Fact 1- The Rotation is solid. These guys should "eat innings" and if you are able to "eat innings" then that means first of all that you are pitching well enough to be left in the game. This will also benefit our bullpen.

Fact 2 - The bullpen may be one of the best in the majors. The huge factor here is health. If Soriano can show up and Moylan's arm be totally healed, then Gonzalez can be money in that closer role - he converted 33 straight saves over two years before his surgery.

Fact 3 - Franceour will rebound. This guy is talented, too talented to be a .230 hitter with 0 power. He has worked on his swing and will be much improved in 09.

Fact 4 - Brian McCann is the best catcher in baseball.

Fact 5 - Home runs aren't everything. We did not add a legitimate 30 homer guy in the offseason, but we don't need it. Home runs are not the only way to score in this game. This is why on base percentage is important when paired with runs and rbi. The team OBP will be up this year with Anderson and Kotchman proving reliable and the returning batting champ, Mr. Jones bringing his .300 to the plate. Franceour will be better and Johnson and Escobar will be consistent.

Fact 6 - Our bench is very deep. We've got Norton, Infante, Prado, and the newly acquired Ross, who will spell B-mac from time to time. All of these guys are potential starters on other teams - with the exception of Norton - and all will provide sound D and O off the bench.

Fact 7 - We improved the most in our division this offseason. One analyst called the Braves rotation reconstruction the best job this side of the Yankees (Sabathia and Burnett). The Mets did drastically improve their bullpen, which probably is the best in baseball on paper, but their rotation is not pretty, lacking depth and certainty after their ace, Santana. The Phillies are looking at the same issues, with Hamels coming off his heaviest workload of his career last year and experiencing elbow discomfort this spring. Their bullpen will be hard pressed to be as efficienct this year as it was last year. The Marlins are very talented, but very young, and the Nats still have several holes.

All of this leads to one conclusion: The Braves may be the team to beat in the East again. Certainly they should be wild-card contenders.

UGA's Coaching Hire

The Dawgs hired Mark Fox from Nevada yesterday. Many are calling it a suprise move because he wasn't on any speculators' lists for the job. His record at Nevada is very impressive (70 games over .500) and he has 3 tourney appearances. This is at Nevada...He now comes to a school with some of the best prospects in the country playing ball for high schools all over the state. I don't know much about this guy, or what he does, but I like the hire. Mainly because a name like Mark Fox just sounds like a winner. I like the fact that he took a mid major to the tourney and had some success there. I like the fact that he was under the radar.

Basically, I think it doesent matter what this guy does. The Men's basketball team has been under scrutiny this year for not being a consistently good team - but it has been like that more often than not in Athens. Perhaps the scrutiny comes now because fans have grown complacent about the football team. 10 win seasons are all too common in Athens these days and the fans have been privy to a remarkable consistency that has put Georgia Football among the elite teams in the country. Much like the Braves' run of 14 years, complacency has set in for that area of athletics. It must be time now to focus on an area that has been ignored for nearly 30 years - the bball team.

Hawks Poised for One and Done

The Hawks began this season with a bang, winning six straight games against teams like Orlando and New Orleans - and won these on the road. Optimism was high for this fan, who still lacks the understanding that seasons in the NBA are very young in November. Now it is April and the Hawks have all but secured the 4th seed in the Conference. I should be excited, but I'm not.

The Hawks are very consistently incosistent. That opening week Orlando win? They turned that into a mid-season trouncing by losing to the Magic in two games by a combined 60 points. They ended Cleveland's winning streak early in the season to be beaten by them convincingly two weeks ago. The Celtics have yet to be beaten in the regular season.

If they cannot be consistently intense on the defensive end of the floor, these Hawks are going to be done in the first round. The 76ers are a bad matchup for the Hawks and recently destroyed their zone defense to beat the birds. The Heat have an MVP that will take a game - or 4 - over. When the Hawks lose, it is because they play uninspired defense. They better find some intensity, and fast.

About the Braves

The rumors that have surfaced recently about Ken Griffey Jr. coming to the Braves organization to fill the left field void have incresed my enthusiasm about the upcoming season. Let us examine first the path that led the Braves to this position and then we may try to figure out whether or not this is a good thing for the 2009 season.

If anyone remembers the Rapheal Furcal debacle, they may also remember that the former Brave was expected to play second upon re-joining the club, moving Kelly Johnson to left...this would have voided the need for Griffey. Dunn and Abreau signed contracts with the Angels and Nats, respectively and Ramirez is way out of the price range. The trade with NY fell through because the Yankees were seemingly unwilling to take on some of Swisher's salary. Then there is Ken Griffey, Jr. He has been barely a blip on the radar of any major league team this winter. Out of the blue, the Braves surface as one of the clubs that would enlist his services in left field.

So what does this mean for '09 (should he sign with us)?

Let me offer a disclaimer: I grew up with Jr. He was the best all around player in baseball in the 90's, in my opinion. He is the one player that could have reached 800 home runs had he stayed helathy 800. That is a bold statement, I realize, but he has 611 HR's at the age of 39 and was absent for a while (the Reds years). So you may see how my next revelation will be quite skewed.

Assuming Griffey does sign with the Braves for '09, the immediate impact will be ticket sales. Griffey is a Hall of Famer without question and a member of a very exclusive club - 600 HRs. People will still pay to see him for the opportunity to catch #612 (or any other #). I am 2 1/2 hours away from "The Ted" and am considering several games this summer, just for the chance to see a great. I realize that we have Glavine and Chipper and that they are too HOFers, but we have seen them time and time again. Griffey is fresh, exciting, and a new kind of legend for the Braves: A home run king.

How does this translate into W's for the fan? Quite frankly, it doesen't. Griffey may not be capable of improving our ballclub the way a Ramirez or Rodriguez would anymore. Almost everyone has written him off as done, washed up, card carying AARP member. I still believe, however. I believe that a surgically repaired knee can rejuvinate the Kid for one more magical season. Not a 50 HR season, but a .280 avg., 100 RBIs and 30 HRs magical. He will have the opportunity for at least one of those stats with Anderson (projected), Escobar and Jones in front of him, and the right handers in the NL East are not as good as the Lefties.

This is all likely a pipedream, however. I love Griffey, because he has yet to let me down ('roids) and he could have been the greatest of all time (injuries). His swing is majestic and his character is fun. He would do well for Atlanta and for baseball if he signs for the Braves. So get it together, Griffey and Frank Wren, don't screw this up.

Intersting News on AJC.com

Obviously, I don't follow UGA basketball very much, but an article on the ajc.com website has required my attention. Just to update those who may not know, UGA Men's basketball is winless this year in conference games and Dennis Felton was fired recently for the teams shortcomings...UGA was the SEC tournament champion last year under Felton.

Anywho...The AJC is speculating that Bob Knight may be interested in the job at UGA. Furman Bisher has an intriguing article in which his primary source is a friend of Knight's: http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-%20blogs/ajc/bisher/entries/2009/01/31/bob_knight_interested_in_uga_j.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab

Wow, this would electrify the UGA program. Let's face it, whether or not you like Bob Knight, he has 902 ways to prove you wrong - more than any other coach - and the UGA basketball program would suddenly be in HD on ESPN (see Texas Tech). Personally, I am all for it, win or lose. Anything that will actually make me interested in UGA basketball is a good thing for me. The turnouts at the Dawgs' arena for games is enough alone to make one want to change the channel...

Let's hope this rumor has some weight.

2009 Falcons Draft

The draft is already a hot topic for 30 teams in the NFL. For the Falcons, defense has been the topic of greatest attention. There have been several reports on what the Falcons will do, including the well-respected Mel Kiper's first Mock Draft of 2009: http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/insider/news/story?id=3849927 . He projects the Falcons taking an OLB/DE in Larry English from Northern Illinois.

One Atlanta Journal Constitution report has the D as the main focus and cites Dimitroff as the source for this information: http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/printedition/2009/01/22/bradley0122.html?cxntlid=inform_artr

My concern, however, is the offensive line. Some believe that the O-line was exposed in the playoffs by Arizona and even referred to Atlanta's success in the run game and pass protection as "smoke and mirrors." This need will be addressed, I believe, but perhaps not in the first round. Let's face it, the Falcons will not have a sexy draft. QB's, RB's, and WR's are sexy. Defensive Tackles, Outside Linebackers, and Safeties, are not. Neither are Centers. Aside from Ryan, Ovie, Turner, and Lofton on Defense, look for Atlanta to adress the middle of both sides of the ball. They inched into this territory last year with DeCoud and in 2007 with Datish from Ohio State. Decoud is not quite like the head hunting run-stuffing Milloy, and Datish was cut. Grady Jackson is 35 and 375, and McClure, though still very effective, will be entering his 14th year.

We cannot go through another year with the same talent on the O-line and expect to get away with it - nor can we expect to ride the backs of 35 + year old players. Dimitroff is a fantastic GM and talent evaluator, and Coach Smith is a great mind who knows what he needs for his game plan, thus, the Falcons will be in great shape after the draft, just don't expect it to be sexy.

Braves Offseason Moves

John Smoltz is a Red Sox. That is about how this offseason could be summed up until Monday, the 12th. The Braves were repeatedly let down by rumours and trade talks that consistently fell through. At one time, Derrick Lowe was considered to be of no interest to the Braves, until he was the last pitcher left that could lead a rotation. Now our rotation will debut with three new faces, including the first Japanese player in a Braves uniform. The missing piece is a legitimate power bat in the lineup. As it stands right now, there is a legitimate chance that no one in the lineup will reach 25 homeruns. Ouch. Spring training is right around the corner, so we will have to see if Wren has anything else up his sleeve.

Falcon Season Wrap

The playoffs became a reality for the Falcons in 2008. This team was supposed to win one game, as many know. That maligned win total was trumped in week 3 against Kansas City.

Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan, Coach of the Year Mike Smith, Pro Bowlers Michael Turner, Roddy White, John Abraham (alternate) and Matt Ryan (alternate). The Sporting News also released its list of superlatives and these Falcons made the list as well as Curtis Lofton, a first team All-Rookie selection.

It was a great season for the Falcons and the fanbase was re-energized after a hopeless 2007 campaign. Many storylines and feel-goods surfaced in 2008, however, and now the Falcons become favorites in the division for 2009. This franchise has never had back to back winning seasons, and this will be a goal. The process, as the orginization calls it, is not over until there is a Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta. That thought alone is hard to fathom for a city that has only seen one major sports championship (1995 Braves). This could quite possibly be the best coaching staff in the NFL in the coming years and the front office has been superb in its debut season.

Go Falcons.

Bulldog Season Wrap and Crystal Ball

Well, when 10 wins leaves room for complaints, your fanbase is pretty fortunate. There are some complaints, however, after the 2008 season. The defense waited until the bowl game to show signs of life, which was bittersweet when considering the 42, 49, and 45 points we gave up in our three losses. We did beat a Michigan St. team with 9 wins (who lost by considerable margins to both Ohio St. and Penn St.), and this is the "sweet" portion of that oxymoron.

Perhaps even larger than what we won or lost between August 30-Jan. 1 is who we lost in the following weeks: Knowshon Moreno, Matthew Stafford and, more recently, Asher Allen. I am going to sail out to the one-man island here and say that Georgia is better off without them. If not better off, at least no worse. Mark Richt has 6 10-win seasons in his 8 years as a Dawg, with only two of those coming with the three kids leaving. Richt was able to win two conference championships with David Greene and DJ Shockley under center and Thomas Brown, Musa Smith, Kregg Lumpking, etc. at tailback. Richt won zero conference crowns with Stafford and Moreno...

The talent coming in makes you scratch your head a bit. How was Richt able to convince the ESPN.com #1 quarterback AND the ESPN.com #10 quarterback to come to Georgia in the same class? Who cares, really? The point is, they are both coming and their names are Aaron Murray and Zach Mettenburger (sounds alot like a certain Steelers superbowl winning QB eh, John Gray?). If either prove to live up to the expectations, Richt will not hesitate to start the best QB (See Stafford). Personally, I'm pulling for Joe Cox to come in in his senior season and remind us all of how effective Shockley was when he got his shot.

Moreno is harder to lose because he is a special talent, but Georgia's running offense was not statistically better with him in the lineup. Look it up. It may seem that way, but the fact is that three years ago when UGA rushed for 200 yards in a game, three guys shared the load, under Moreno, only one guy supplied the yards. Everyone knows UGA is a magnet for good running backs, and King and Samuel will prove to work hard and be effective like all of our other rotating runners.

Bottom line is, I look for Georgia to have at least 9 wins again next year, maybe even 10 with their New Year's Day bowl game.

Of course, the road will be tough, with the disheartening news that Tebow will delay his entry into the NFL - who projected him as a mid-level tight end - this all may be a moot point. Miracles can happen...on ice anyway. Boldest January prediction - Georgia loses 1 game next year to the Gators, who lose 2, Georgia 2009 SEC champs. If you're under the radar, get your but off the floor.

Back After Long Rest

I am back after a two month layoff in which papers, exams, and other issues prevented me from posting.

I laugh looking at my November 12 post. The Hawks suffered their first loss of the season that night in Boston and now they have 15, including a three-streak of bad performances. The Bulldogs took a nosedive against Tech in the last week of November, and the Falcons missed the 2nd seed in the playoffs and a first round bye by a last second Panther field goal against New Orleans.

More on all that very shortly. I am back and will post regularly.

Celtics 103 Hawks 102

If you don't think the Hawks can beat the Celtics, you're crazy. Without Josh Smith, without Pachula, with Horford playing 20 minutes, the Hawks had the lead with 7 seconds left in this game.

I'll say it now: The Hawks are better than the Celtics. Period. Give these guys seven games and we win in 6. Period. Paul Pierce, a.k.a. Mr. I'll Create A Foul, hit a great shot to go ahead with half a second left. The Hawks, however, need to walk away feeling good about this. They have arrived, even in a loss. Without Smith, and with Horford's 5th foul coming in the third quarter, the Hawks pressed the Celtics to the end. Joe Johnson is an all-star, and a superstar. We will beat Boston soon, next time we play them as a matter of fact. The Celtics don't want to play us anymore, we are better than them, that's the facts.

Atlanta drafted their talent and developed it, with the exception of Johnson and Bibby, Boston bought their talent. Atlanta has arrived, Boston is leaving the building. Mark what I say, the Hawks will own Boston the rest of the year.

It's Time: Hawks Edition

Wow, 5-0. There are 82 games in an NBA season. The Atlanta Hawks have won the first 5.

How did they do it? Win on the road. Check. Win at home. Check. Quality opponents...4 2007-08 playoff teams...Check.

What is impressive about the Hawks so far is their ability to play D. One opponent has scored over 90 points thus far - and we won that game by 10+.

Tonight, the Hawks sneaked out a win over the Thunder on the road but what was significant about this game was the fact that the Thunder are the Hawks of 3 years ago. They are young and learning how to finish a game in the NBA. It was a night full of past and future. Past: a young team that is talented but not quite ready. Future: an experienced team, willing to hang in and win a close game on the road in the NBA.

Past: Thunder. Future/NOW: Hawks.

It's Time

That's right, fans, it's time to start talking about the Falcons as serious playoff contenders. To be fair, it was time to start this discussion at least three weeks ago but, the first division win of the season - a convincing one - definitely warrants discussion.

The Falcons' D was great in this game, and one can only fully appreciate that if they watched the game. 450 yards of offense or more usually does not indicate good defense but consider this - Drew Brees, the nearly unanimous midseason MVP, had 7 interceptions entering this game. That is roughly a 1 INT/Game average thus far...the Falcons forced 3 INTs in this game, including two key cases with NO threatening late. One might also consider that ATL was in prevent throughout the 4th quarter with the game in hand, prevent is a D that is willing to concede the yardage to save the points.

Whatever the case, Ryan had about a 150 QB rating, Turner had 96 + a TD, and the Falcons are 6-3. Playoffs are not unreasonable with 2 more division games AT HOME. Defend the Dome, Falcons, and we will be in the playofffs.

Previewing the Saints v. Falcons

As I watch the opening minutes of the Steelers v. Redskins, it becomes apparent that the Falcons will need to win the division in order to get to the playoffs. This may be unrealistic simply because the Panthers are that good and their schedule is depressingly easy over the next few weeks. In any case, let's get to this weekend's Falcons game.

The Saints were on a bye this week, after their London trip. Normally, this gives the Saints extra preparation for their biggest division rivals, but I think the Falcons did enough to remain mysterious against the Raiders. Sure, there will be plenty of film on the Falcons' offense after they ran three quarters' worth of plays, but the defense was only on the field for 15 minutes, consequently. This may provide the Falcons with an advantage. The defense vs. the Raiders was very efficient and, as a result, they did not reveal many tendencies. Hopefully, the Falcons can steal this home game from the Saints. The Falcons find the Saints after a bye and the Broncos get 3 extra games of prep following their Thursday night debut on the NFL Network. The deck is stacked against the Falcons when considering the schedule, but staying simple against the Raiders will help them to gain a slight edge.

Arguing for the Big 12

I am going to admit this for possibly the first time: The Big 12 is hands down the best conference in college football.

The SEC was overrated this year, and severely. Consider the preseason number 1, UGA, and their losses, then consider LSU and their losses, allowing a combined 103 points. SEC proponents say that the Big 12 does not play D, but LSU and UGA haven't shown any signs of doing that themselves. Their big defensive statistics came against the worst offenses in football, like South Carolina, Tennessee, and Auburn.

Florida and Alabama are the only teams that might be able to handle 4 Big 12 South teams, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. LSU and Georgia may play these teams close, but after that, there are no teams in the SEC that could come close to these 4. The topper is Missouri. Of the remaining 8 SEC teams, I would argue that none could beat Missouri.

If Texas played Georgia's schedule, they may have lost to the same two teams, but if UGA had Texas' schedule, you could see UGA with three losses (TT, OU, and Mizz).

The SEC's saving grace will be Florida. No one is going to come near beating this team again this year -- not even Alabama in the SEC Championship. Florida's D is so much improved from last year and the offense has so many weapons, I would be willing to bet that no team left on their schedule (Including a bowl) gets within 20 points of the Gators.

But one team does not make a conference. To settle all of this, we will need a Texas/Texas Tech vs. Florida Championship game. I would be especially interested in a Texas Tech/Florida matchup with those variations of the spread on one field.

Disclaimer: Penn St. vs. Alabama would be my ideal matchup by the way, because smash mouth football would be the story, and there would be blood.

Falcons 24 Raiders 0

Wow, what a defensive performance for the Falcons. Check that, a total team effort. The Falcons had the ball for 45 minutes....thats three full quarters....The defense only allowed 73 yards of offense -- the entire game.

Halfway through the season, the Falcons are 5-3 and a game out of a wildcard playoff spot, due to tiebreakers. Great effort by the team, Turner, Ryan, Abraham, Lofton, Jenkins - yes Jenkins, all had great games.

Now for the second half of the season which starts with a bang: NO, Denver, Carolina.

GO FALCONS!

Bad Loss

Well, UGA got handled by Florida, again. Turnovers and possibly the greatest college quarterback in the history of the game did the Dawgs in. Enough said. On to celebrate the Falcons' rousing win over the Raiders.

Best Division in the NFL

In the last couple of weeks, the opinion has been that the NFC South was catching up to, if not passing, the NFC East in strength. That all changed Sunday. The NFC East reclaimed its spot as the strongest division in the NFL and they did it by beating 2 NFC South teams and one AFC playoff team.

The suddenly-suspect Cowboys beat the Tampa Bay Bucs. Big deal, you say, but they accomplished this feat without Tony Romo.

The Eagles beat the Falcons in what could have become a blowout, but the young Falcons made it interesting in the fourth quarter.

The Redskins got by the lowly Lions, right on the spread.

Finally, in what many thought might be a Super Bowl preview, the Giants beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

Certainly, Carolina can play with any team in the NFC East and beat them, and the Bucs would be in every game as well, but the East is top to bottom the best division in Football. The NFC South is about one Falcons full year of maturity away from being an incredibly dominating division, but this is just not quite the year.

By the way, I exclude the AFC divisions in this argument because there is not one division in that conference as good as the NFC East, or South, top to bottom.

Good quarterback play is the mark of both the NFC East and South (with the exception of Romo last week, who was injured). Drew Brees is early MVP, Delhomme is back as a top tier QB, and Ryan is better than advertised. Donovan---nough said, Jason Campbell is managing his game, and Eli is a Manning. The seperation between the two comes in the teams' defenses. Atlanta's and New Orlean's are shaky at times, while Carolina and Tampa are perennial top 10 Defenses. Every team in the NFC has an above average defense, with New York and Philadelphia harboring the same blitz-happy philosiphies.

These divisions need to be closely monitored, because it is likely that each will bring two teams to the playoffs, and one might bring three.

The BCS Problem

Texas, Alabama, and Penn State all took care of business on Saturday, and all remain undefeated. Obviously, if all remain undefeated - with Texas and Penn State having the greatest chance at this - then someone is getting left out. Certainly Penn St. will be said to have the easiest schedule of the three and will not have that extra game to put them ahead of either Texas or Bama.

This year is a no win situation for the BCS and here are some reasons:

1) If Texas and Penn St. meet undefeated in the Championship, the question will be raised if a one loss SEC team or USC might not be better than Penn St.

2) There may be a list of one-loss teams including UGA/Florida, Bama, Oklahoma/Oklahoma St., and USC. If there are 4 one-loss teams, who goes?

3) What happens with three undefeated? Right now, Alabama and Texas meet, while Penn St. gets "Auburned"

This system is seriously flawed, and money is what keeps the NCAA from changing it. Even a plus-one would solve a number of the problems posed with the 2-team championship. The argument that the regular season is the postseason is bogus. There are 117 teams in the FCS, with some playing the top 10 and others playing the bottom 10 througout the year. With parity becoming a buzzword in college football, it is unfair to these kids to deny obviously good teams a shot. USC plays no one from the SEC this year. The Big 12 has an extremely weak non-conference schedule, and the SEC doesen't have much to brag about, either. Perhaps the NCAA should set up a rotating schedule featuring the top teams from the previous year, like the NFL. Who knows what the solution is, but there is a huge problem.

Week 9/8 Football Picks

This week is very intriguing in both college and pro football. Can USC avoid being upset at an upstart Arizona? Can the Bulldogs put a complete game together? Will the Falcons actually reach 5-2? Let's find out.

Kansas 42 Texas Tech 38: First ranked team of the season for Texas Tech, and they get them on the road.

Texas 49 OSU 21: Texas rolls again -- (If you want to crown 'em then crown their *ss!)

USC 35 Arizona 7: USC avoids the upset and the west-coast voters breath a sigh of relief.

Ohio St. 24 Penn St. 17: One of the few times I will say, "Thank you, Ohio State"

Georgia 34 LSU 21: UGA finally takes care of business against a good team, but it's real close early, and the Cocktail Party gets a big boost.

PRO:

Chargers 17 Saints 14: Takes a long time to get to England in a row boat, and even longer for these two offenses to wake up.

Carolina 24 Arizona 3: Shut-down D makes Panthers look real good at home.

Tampa Bay 31 Dallas 7: Brad Johnson still wishes he was one of Gruden's 9 quarterbacks.

Philadelphia 24 Atlanta 10: Anyone remember the Falcons have a shaky secondary? Philly is not the team you're going to fix that on.