BCS standings were released today for the first time: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3652334 . Texas is 1 followed by Bama.
Georgia is 7th in the standings and in great shape. They are ranked above undefeated Texas Tech and just behind undefeated Oklahoma State. Texas Tech gets into the meat of their schedule soon facing Kansas, Oklahoma, OSU, and Texas in the next five weeks...ouch. OSU does not face Texas but does play the Sooners. The Big 12 will be fun to watch.
Florida, Bama, Penn St., and USC are just a few teams that stand in UGA's way to a shot at the title. Georgia can control its own destiny in two of these cases, which is very fortunate, but that USC bothers me. I doubt they will lose again in that Placid-10 conference of theirs. Oklahoma, you would think, wouldn't be the favorite pick to play Texas should the Horns go undefeated and OU be the first one-loss team available (Remember last year when LSU, a 2 loss team was picked over UGA, a 2 loss team AND USC because of the weight given to conference championships, which OU cannot win unless Texas folds). It will be interesting and frustrating to see how this shakes out.
BCS Championship game prediction, week 8: Penn St. vs. Texas.
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9 comments:
I don't think it was just the weight of conference championships that allowed LSU to jump Georgia last year. The main reason LSU jumped Georgia was the fact that they played a game against a ranked opponent and won while Georgia was idle. I think if Georgia beat Kanses, for example, the same week as LSU vs Tennessee last year, Georgia would have been chosen to go to the BCS Championship game.
The Conference championship is essential in the BCS system. The argument last year was that if you do not win your own conference, you should not be allowed to play for your national championship. Of course, if this is true, then College football is the only sport that bans teams in such a way (i.e., wildcard slots in pros). The idle week is the point, though. The idle week is huge in this system, but Ohio State survived two idle weeks twice and were able to secure their spot. We need a playoff and College football is bogus until we get one.
The Conference Championship is not essential to the BCS system. Two times the National Championship had a team in it that was not a conference champ. In 2002 Nebraska was chosen to play Miami for the national championship after losing their last game of the year to Colorado, who went on to win the Big 12. Two years later Oklahoma was selected to play LSU in the title game after losing in the Big 12 Championship game. Georgia was not skipped over simply because they weren't champs. LSU jumped them last year because they showed they were better. Ohio State was only in it last year because they had only 1 lost compared to every one else's 2losses. No 1 loss BCS conference team will ever be jumped by a 2 loss team for the final BCS standings. I hate the idea of a playoff system, by the way.
Great blog Paul. I love the line " Modern literature costs much and provides little."
Ivan
John, I did forget about Oklahoma, sorry, but Miami played Ohio State in 2002 for the championship, which Ohio State won.
Thanks for reading Ivan.
Ohio State beat Miami in the 2002 BCS Championship which was played in the calendar year 2003. Miami trounced Oklahoma in the BCS Championship that took place in the calendar year of 2002.
miami played nebraska in 01 and won, then played osu in 02. in 03, lsu beat oklahoma by 7 while usc beat michigan for the ap national championship, severing the ties between the ap and the bcs. either way, it is possible for ou to play texas, but highly unlikely in my opinion.
The BCS formula was rewritten following the 2003-2004 season, so the Nebraska, Oklahoma argument has nothing to do with the current BCS format. I agree with Paul that the current BCS format chose LSU over Georgia because they were the SEC conference champions (even though Georgia and USC were the two best teams at the end of the season, my opinion.) I do not agree with Paul that USC is the team to worry about. I think, that if the AP & USA Today polls finish the way they started the season, rankings based on opponents, and quality wins(USC jumped Georgia, because USC destroyed an ACC opponent (a weak one) while Georgia beat a sub-division team), that all of the 1 loss SEC teams will control their own destiny, if Penn St. loses this weekend. If not I believe we will see another Big 10 mugging. Penn St. and LSU's 6 game winning against top 10 teams are what Dawg fans need to worry about.
The BCS system wasn't just rewritten following the Oklahoma or Nebraska situation. The BCS system is rewritten every year. And it still hasn't been written to prevent non-Conference Champions from being included in the National Championship Game. So there is still valid precedent for Oklahoma to play Texas for the championship. If Georgia goes undefeated the rest of the way, they probably would jump Oklahoma, but Florida's remaining schedule is nowhere near as strong as Oklahoma's.
*Alabama and Penn State suffer losses in all these scenarios.
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